UNAIR NEWS – A targeted military strike by the United States on Iran’s nuclear facilities has heightened international concern over a possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The attack comes amid long-standing hostilities between Iran and Israel. Although limited in scope, the U.S. involvement is considered a calculated move with wide-reaching implications—particularly for global energy markets and political stability.
Agastya Wardhana, SHub Int, MHubInt, a lecturer in International Relations at Universitas Airlangga (UNAIR), explained that the U.S. intervention is deeply connected to its strategic alliance with Israel, as well as former President Donald Trump’s agenda to halt Iran’s nuclear program.
“The U.S. is a close ally of Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly urged Washington to join the fight. Meanwhile, under President Trump, the U.S. had already taken a strong stance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions,” said Wardhana.
Strategic motives
According to Wardhana, Trump seized on the Iran-Israel conflict as an opportunity to pressure Tehran without engaging in a full-scale war. Instead, he opted for limited strikes with maximum strategic impact. “Trump’s objective has always been to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. He used this moment of heightened tension as a justification for targeted action,” he said.
He emphasized that the U.S. attack focused solely on specific targets. “Trump’s strategy was to hit the site, then leave. It wasn’t about starting a war or deploying troops—it was a hit-and-exit operation,” Wardhana explained.
Economic repercussions
A major concern stemming from the conflict, Wardhana noted, is the possibility that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz—a crucial global energy corridor. “Iran’s primary response would be to block the Strait of Hormuz, and that’s what’s been making headlines,” he said.
He noted that roughly 50 to 70 percent of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Any disruption there could severely impact global supply chains. “If oil deliveries are delayed, prices will surge. And when oil prices rise, economic contraction tends to follow,” he warned.
Wardhana also pointed to the recent volatility in oil and gold prices, linking it to uncertainty around the situation. “The bigger question is how Iran and Israel will respond. That uncertainty is what’s driving up commodity prices,” he added.
Developing countries’ role
Wardhana explained that while developing nations like Indonesia lack the capacity to engage directly in such conflicts, they can still play an important role in maintaining peace. “Direct involvement isn’t possible, but countries like Indonesia can contribute through international forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the United Nations,” he said.
He stressed that multilateral diplomacy is a key tool for reducing tensions. “These countries may not be able to solve the crisis, but they can help prevent it from worsening by offering alternative solutions,” Wardhana emphasized.
Finally, Wardhana highlighted the unmatched military capabilities of the United States. “No other country has the capacity to launch this kind of targeted military operation. Not even Russia or China can match the U.S. in this regard,” he concluded.
Author: Ameyliarti Bunga Lestari
Editor: Yulia Rohmawati