{"id":357234,"date":"2025-06-24T16:25:24","date_gmt":"2025-06-24T09:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/unair.ac.id\/economist-comments-on-post-u-s-iran-war-economic-repercussions\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T13:31:51","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T06:31:51","slug":"economist-comments-on-post-u-s-iran-war-economic-repercussions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/unair.ac.id\/en\/economist-comments-on-post-u-s-iran-war-economic-repercussions\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist comments on post U.S.-Iran war economic repercussions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

UNAIR NEWS<\/strong> \u2013 The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy, pushing markets into heightened uncertainty. Citing Reuters (June 22), Oxford analysts have outlined three potential outcomes of the conflict: a de-escalation of tensions, a complete halt in Iranian oil production, and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n

Dr. Unggul Heriqbaldi, SE, MSi, MAppEc, an International Economics expert from Universitas Airlangga\u2019s Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB UNAIR), outlined both the direct and indirect consequences this conflict may have on Indonesia\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n\n

\"\"
Dr. Unggul Heriqbaldi, SE, MSi, MAppEc, an International Economics expert from FEB UNAIR<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
Global oil price surge<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n

Since June 13, 2025, Brent crude oil prices have risen by 13% bringing Brent to approximately USD 79 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has jumped 10%. \u201cWith escalating tensions, including U.S. strikes and Iran\u2019s parliament approving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we could see global oil prices soar past USD 100 per barrel,\u201d said Dr. Heriqbaldi. <\/p>\n\n

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit, responsible for nearly 20% of the global crude oil supply. For Indonesia\u2014a net importer of oil and LPG\u2014this poses a serious threat. Rising prices could strain government subsidies and disrupt global supply chains dependent on fossil fuels. \u201cIf oil prices surpass the 2025 state budget assumption of USD 80\u201385 per barrel, fuel and LPG subsidy costs will surge significantly,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n

Mounting fiscal and inflationary pressures<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n

The fallout from the conflict is also likely to impact exchange rates, reduce foreign direct investment (FDI), and increase the risk of external debt crises. \u201cDeveloping countries like Indonesia, which rely heavily on energy imports and have considerable foreign debt exposure, are especially vulnerable,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n

On the financial front, higher energy prices are expected to drive global inflation, prompting central banks in developed economies to raise interest rates. \u201cThis scenario worsens the debt burden. When currencies weaken and borrowing costs climb, nations with low foreign exchange reserves and fragile fiscal positions\u2014such as Sri Lanka or Pakistan\u2014face a heightened risk of external debt crises.\u201d<\/p>\n\n

Turning crisis into reform<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n

Nonetheless, Dr. Heriqbaldi sees this crisis as an opportunity for reflection and long-term reform. He urged the government to bolster domestic resilience through medium- and long-term strategies, including social protection programs for vulnerable populations, such as conditional cash transfers.<\/p>\n\n

Currently, Indonesia consumes 1.6 million barrels of oil per day but produces only 600,000\u2014relying heavily on imports. \u201cWe need to accelerate domestic oil production, improve refinery efficiency, and implement structural reforms in the energy sector,\u201d he advised.<\/p>\n\n

He also stressed the importance of downstream development in oil, gas, mineral, and coal industries, and expanding the national energy mix through renewable energy.<\/p>\n\n

\u201cEnergy diversification not only strengthens energy security but also accelerates decarbonization. The government must act swiftly to enhance investment incentives and develop the infrastructure needed to support renewable energy,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n\n

Author: Sintya Alfafa<\/a><\/p>\n\n

Editor: Ragil Kukuh Imanto<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UNAIR NEWS \u2013 The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through the global economy, pushing markets into heightened uncertainty. Citing Reuters (June 22), Oxford analysts have outlined three potential outcomes of the conflict: a de-escalation of tensions, a complete halt in Iranian oil production, and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Dr. Unggul […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":79,"featured_media":357071,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,4554],"tags":[178,168],"class_list":["post-357234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en-2","category-news","tag-unair-en","tag-universitas-airlangga-en"],"yoast_head":"\nEconomist comments on post U.S.-Iran war economic repercussions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dr. Unggul Heriqbaldi, SE, MSi, MAppEc, an International Economics expert from FEB UNAIR, outlined both the direct and indirect consequences this conflict may have on Indonesia\u2019s economy.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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