This study explores youth development in Indonesia through the Youth Development Index (YDI), a key indicator designed to assess youth progress across five domains: education, health, employment, participation, and gender equality. Despite having the largest youth population in Southeast Asia, Indonesia ranks only fifth in the region’s YDI. Using panel data from 34 provinces over 2020–2022, the research employs binary logit and binary probit regression models with random effects to categorize YDI achievement relative to a national target of 57.67, set by the Ministry of Youth and Sports Affairs. The binary probit model emerged as the better fit, achieving a classification accuracy of 93.14% and a McFadden R-squared of 0.4064.
Results show that the Gender Inequality Index (GII) and Expected Years of Schooling (EYS) significantly influence the likelihood of provinces meeting YDI targets. Notably, gender inequality negatively impacts youth development, while higher expected schooling years correlate positively. The proportion of women in managerial positions, however, was not statistically significant. These findings suggest that addressing gender disparities and improving education access are pivotal for enhancing youth development outcomes. The study highlights the importance of using advanced statistical methods—like panel data regression with random effects—for robust modeling in social research. Policymakers are encouraged to design data-driven interventions that target gender equality and educational reforms, aligning with the goals of Indonesia Emas 2045 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The model’s predictive power supports its use as a practical decision-making tool for evaluating youth-focused programs. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that structural and institutional reforms addressing gender inequality and educational equity are essential to support inclusive growth and youth empowerment. The integration of gender-sensitive and education-centered strategies into national development planning will foster a generation of skilled, resilient, and socially active youth. Ultimately, the research underscores the need for evidence-based, inclusive policymaking to unlock the full potential of Indonesia’s youth and secure a prosperous national future.
Author: Suliyanto
